A new COVID-19 model from Georgia Tech projects increases of thousands of cases and deaths in the state by mid-August. The university’s Center for... Georgia Tech model predicts jump in COVID cases, deaths

A new COVID-19 model from Georgia Tech projects increases of thousands of cases and deaths in the state by mid-August.

The university’s Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems and Health Analytics Group say that depending on how much the public follows physical distancing measures in the coming weeks, Georgia’s total number of COVID-19 deaths could range from 6,100 to 17,900 by that August time frame.

On the peak day, the state could see 44,800 to 77,700 new cases, according to the analysis.

Deaths from the virus currently total 1,360 in Georgia, with more than 32,000 people confirmed as testing positive for the disease.

Keskinocak

Pinar Keskinocak, director of the Center for Health and Humanitarian Systems, said the model emphasizes the importance of shelter-in-place and the public’s compliance with social distancing, especially a “voluntary quarantine” when a household member is sick.

The recent reopening of the state’s economy, she said, is expected to lead to increases in cases and deaths. “The peak that we should all be concerned is still ahead of us. The rate of new infections will soon pick up again and increase in the coming weeks,” said Nicoleta Serban, who leads the Health Analytics Group.

The Georgia Tech analysis uses an “agent-based’’ simulation model that the authors say captures the progression of the disease in an individual and also interactions in households, workplaces, schools and communities. It utilizes state demographic data to help arrive at its conclusions.

The model implements different social distancing scenarios, including school closures, shelter-in-place, and voluntary quarantine. The latter is defined as when person shows cold- or flu-like symptoms, all household members stay home until the entire household is symptom-free.

“Our models indicate that if we could achieve very high levels of [voluntary quarantine] compliance, possibly with intermittent shelter-in-place, that would help significantly reduce infection spread,’’ Keskinocak said.

“What happens moving forward depends on what we do,’’ she added. “How we behave makes a big difference in numbers. The primary tool we have now is social or physical distancing, in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral treatment.’’

Other models of the COVID-19 impact on the state also project a significant increase in deaths.

A widely cited analysis from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects 4,913 COVID-19 deaths in Georgia by Aug. 4.

The IHME model is useful for making short-term predictions, Keskinocak said. The Georgia Tech analysis, on the other hand, represents what she calls a “transmission model.’’

“If you are looking for longer-term clues regarding how the pandemic will play out, pay attention to transmission models, even though they have their own built-in uncertainties,’’ she said. “Our model captures the transmissions at a very detailed level, and enables us to do predictions under different potential scenarios.’’

Asked about such model projections, Gov. Brian Kemp said at a Capitol news conference Thursday that “we’re going to continue to follow the data.’’

Kemp addressing reporters Thursday                                       Photo credit: Georgia Recorder

 

Models may not incorporate all the social distancing requirements that states have implemented, he said.

“Our numbers continue to look very good,’’ Kemp said, citing a drop in the percent of positives per number of tests.

“I think it’s important for Georgians not to get scared or panic because somebody has a new model that says something,’’ Kemp told reporters.  “All models are wrong.’’

Kemp emphasized he can take further action if the pandemic situation worsens in the state.

 

Weighing different models

The Georgia Department of Public Health said Friday that it considers a number of models, weighing the strengths of each, when trying to estimate the COVID impact in coming months.

The agency said it has worked with the Georgia Tech modelers, as well as those from the IHME, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania. Officials have overlaid hospital capacity data by region to anticipate medical need based on these models. These data will be shared with hospitals and health care regions to help them better prepare, said Public Health spokeswoman Nancy Nydam.

The Georgia Tech model predicts that demand for hospital beds would exceed the capacity available for COVID-19 patients in most regions of the state.

Georgia hospitals in recent weeks have increased bed capacity to handle a potential surge.

“Increased testing, contact tracing, social distancing and use of face coverings in public are all steps that are critical to stopping further spread of infection and deaths from COVID-19,’’ Nydam said.

Andreas Handel of the University of Georgia’s College of Public Health said the Georgia Tech study “seems well executed.’’

“The results and conclusions strike me as reasonable,’’ said Handel, who studies the spread and control of infectious diseases. “There is of course uncertainty inherent with any such prediction models.’’

One factor that doesn’t appear to be in the Georgia Tech model, Handel said, is the impact of warmer temperatures on virus transmission.

“However, any weather-related impact is likely not large enough to alter their overall conclusions by a large amount. Overall, I think the results of their study are in the right ballpark,’’ said Handel.

“I believe the idea that we can go back to normal or something close to it at this point is simply not supported by the facts,’’ Handel said. “We need to try everything to reduce transmission further.’’

He cited continued use of shelter-in-place, quarantine, and wearing masks. “And we should also try to ramp up approaches that rely on testing, tracing and isolating individuals.’’

 


Sign up for our free email alerts and follow us on Facebook and on Twitter @gahealthnews.
Help us fulfill our nonprofit mission with a tax-deductible donation!

Andy Miller

Andy Miller is editor and CEO of Georgia Health News

  • Free Polazzo

    May 8, 2020 #1 Author

    My concern, as one who has dealt with “numbers” his entire career, is that NUMBERS can be manipulated by organizations. Especially when the leader (person at the top of the Hierarchy : (CEO, President, Governor, Superintendent, Executive Director, Editor,) has a vested interest in what that number “should” be.

    President Trump is like more “small business” leaders. than you might think. I’ve met quit a few who had no qualms about manipulating numbers to make themselves and their organization look good/better. Especially when the company is not publicly listed. That means that not only can they avoid independent audits, the SEC doesn’t have any sway over how their company’s numbers are determined.

    Leader who have a disdain for the accuracy of a number or set of numbers. find it easy to change them often. So, nightly news reporters and even late niite comedians try to figure out “How did s/he come up with that number(s). (LIke how many Americans will DIE by the End of August.. The correct answer is :”nobody knows”.

    I read that Governor Kemp has changed the “timing” for when someone who dies with COVID-19 is included in the count. By delaying those deaths he (or his body counters, can keep them in reserve for a later date so that GA can look like “the curve” (which is a graphic of a set of numbers) is “flat or dropping” . By delaying reporting deaths, they might even find a way to move them into the “Other” category. In fact, most people will be unable to compare the earlier numbers with those in the future because the way we counted “deaths’ has changed. .

    Also, remember that GA’s Coroners (who decide the cause of death) are all ELECTED officials and only one out of GA’s 159 is a Medical Doctor. They have to win an election every 4 years. And here we are again with the Voting ()numbers) Game. .

    Reply

  • VEDAT AKGUN

    May 26, 2020 #2 Author

    Sweden has been “open” since the beginning. I will not argue about their numbers or if they did the wrong thing or the right thing, but from a prediction perspective, they represent an empirical reference. The way that they have been “open” I believe somehow closely relates to the “open” status in Georgia. Therefore, any model for GA should be tested for Sweden. If you run any of those models for the first “open” date for Sweeden and predict the future as if it did not happen yet would give a measurement of how closely those models can predict the “open” cases. Whatever their patterns are, they may actually be considered as the average of what to expect. Anything for Georgia that would be drastically different than the patterns in Sweeden will indicate how off the models may be.

    Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Please leave these two fields as-is:

Help us pursue our nonprofit mission with a tax-deductible donation.

Credit Cards

EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS
Donations Welcome

Donate Icon